Tag Archives: recession

what if growth disappoints again?

Late last month the Commerce Department revised first quarter economic growth from its initially tepid .2 percent estimate to a putrid negative .7 percent. There was no shortage of excuses for these results. The West Coast port slowdown was cited, as was the usual whipping boy, severe winter weather. In April, CNBC analyzed 30 years of GDP data and showed that first quarter growth persistently underperforms expectations. Whatever the reason, or reasons, the fact remains that –seven years in–we are still mired in the slowest post-recession recovery in US history.

And, to paraphrase Humphrey Bogart, things are never so bad that they can’t get worse.

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growth? what growth?

Yesterday the Commerce Department reported that the US economy shrank one percent in 2014’s first quarter, surprisingly worse than its initial estimate in late April of .1 percent growth. Most people blame the brutal “polar vortex” winter weather for this decline. All morning, the talking heads on CNBC have been excitedly predicting that, with the weather improving, second quarter growth will rebound to two or even possibly three to four percent. The recovery, they say, is accelerating. To which I would reply: you call this a recovery?

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