Wall Street has always been captivated by controversial companies, controversial leaders, and controversial mergers. Tesla’s shocking offer to buy SolarCity on Tuesday featured all three, so it was no surprise that the deal instantly seemed like a bigger story than the presidential race, gun control, ISIS, and Brexit. It even managed to make the last controversial company that dominated headlines, Valeant Pharma, seem like an afterthought.
A few people have written in asking my opinion of the deal. The short answer is, I believe investors are well advised to avoid both stocks like the plague. As separate entities, these companies are wildly overvalued story stocks with a good chance of going broke. Together, they will form one wildly overvalued story stock with a good chance of going broke.
Two weeks ago, I flew to my old stomping grounds in Houston and visited seven energy companies in three days. The mood around town and in corporate offices was far more upbeat than my last few trips down there, and not just because the Rockets were in the midst of pulling off one of the biggest comebacks in NBA playoffs history.
Despite what you might have heard, the oil business is rebounding.
Last week, I wrote a bearish article on Tesla for Seeking Alpha–not the company, the stock. As I said in the piece (and an earlier blog post), I admire Elon Musk and I think Teslas are neat cars. I’ve even considered buying one. But the company’s stock is another story. The logic of paying more than $200 a share for a barely cash positive business with all sorts of very large challenges ahead of it seems, well, stretched to me. And yet, people keep on buying. The article came out Monday morning, West Coast time. By the end of the day, Tesla was up another eight bucks. A few days later, Tesla beat on its Q2 earnings and the stock started pushing against its all time highs again. Correction? What correction?
Even though I clearly stated in my piece that I have no positions in the company, long or short, and no plans to initiate any positions in the future, several commenters accused me of secretly shorting Tesla and trying to drag its share price down. Unfortunately, this sort of vitriol is common. Short sellers are about as popular as personal injury lawyers and IRS agents these days. In the eyes of most investors, we’re little more than greedy vultures looking to smear good companies so we can profit on their fall. This simplistic, black hat-versus-white hat understanding of the financial world might be comforting, but it’s a dangerous fantasy.
In reality, the people waving the white hats and whipping this bull market higher are the ones investors should really be fearing–or at least questioning.
(Update: I guess I wasn’t done talking about Tesla. I just wrote a longer piece about the company for Seeking Alpha. You can find it here.)
If Warren Buffett is right (and he usually is) that the stock market is a short term popularity contest and a long term weighing machine, you could easily argue that the most popular stock on Wall Street over the last eighteen months has been Tesla (TSLA). Elon Musk’s battery-powered car manufacturer is barely cash flow positive, but bullish investors have lifted it to a market cap of over $25 billion. That’s more than a third of the value of a little mom and pop outfit called Ford Motors.
But this past week hasn’t been kind to Tesla. First, a report from the website The Street called the Audi A8 Diesel a “Tesla Killer.” Besides bashing Tesla’s limited range and likening its interior comfort to a “Burger King” compared to the Audi’s “Buckingham Palace,” the piece also showed that, due to battery depreciation and electricity costs, the Audi is cheaper to own and operate. Then, yesterday, another Tesla caught fire. Of course, your average Honda or Chevy is liable to go up in flames if you plow it into a light pole at 100 MPH, as the driver of the Tesla did in this case. But reports from the scene said the Tesla’s batteries were “popping like fireworks” in the middle of the street. For a car with a well-publicized history of mysterious fires, that’s the last kind of press Musk wants.
Personally, I like Teslas. I think they’re neat looking. I’ve even considered buying one, and I wish Musk the best in his attempts to revolutionize the auto industry. But I am a little weary of the hype surrounding the cars. Sure, they don’t burn gasoline, but they do suck up electricity–and in a lot of places in the United States and abroad, that’s about the dirtiest way you can power a car.