Last week, I posted an article on Seeking Alpha on the troubled biotech firm Dendreon (DNDN). Eighteen months ago, I shorted over 200,000 shares of the company. As I said in the article, even though the stock has lost its half its value, I haven’t covered a single share, and I doubt I ever will. Why? Because it’s a classic example of what I call a dead-company-walking. In the near future, probably less than two years, I believe it is destined for one fatal outcome: bankruptcy.
This prediction, and the fact that I have sold the stock short, generated a fair amount of negative reactions to the piece. One commenter declared that all short sellers should be “iviscerated” (sic). Yikes! Others respondents were less colorful, but no less angry. They blamed short sellers like me for bringing down what they believe is a good company with a beneficial cancer drug. But blaming shorts like me for Dendreon’s demise shows a fundamental misunderstanding of corporate capital structures and how bankruptcy works.
The talk of the investment world this past week has been the continuing soap opera at JC Penney. The latest installment has been the feud between board member and New York hedge fund manager Bill Ackman and just about everybody else within the company. Ackman, of course, was the one who convinced the board to hire former Apple retail guru Ron Johnson as CEO—a move that cost the company billions after Johnson disastrously tried to make the venerable retailer into some kind of glorified cross between Saks Fifth Avenue and Urban Outfitters.
After the company finally got rid of Johnson in May, Ackman agreed to bring back former CEO Mike Ullman on an interim basis. But that brief period of harmony vanished this week when Ackman publicly aired his displeasure with Ullman’s leadership. That move was the last straw for the board. They accepted Ackman’s resignation, calling his recent behavior “disruptive and counterproductive.”
Too which I say—”disruptive and counterproductive???” I know corporate boards tend to err on the side of decorum and blandness, but calling Bill Ackman “disruptive and counterproductive” to Penney’s is like calling an arsonist “disruptive and counterproductive” to buildings.
I shorted Penney’s seven months ago. It was a dead company walking then and I still believe it is a dead company walking today. And the person that mortally wounded it was the exact person who caused the latest trouble, Mr. Ackman himself. Ackman has been “disruptive and counterproductive” from day one at Penney’s, and even though he’s gone now, he’s left behind the torched shell of a once great company.
Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter coined the term “creative destruction” to describe the positive impact of business failure on free market economies. It’s a simple concept. As better ideas for products or services emerge, old ones dies out. The classic example is the automobile coming on the scene and displacing horses and buggies. More recently, the internet has been a very creative destroyer. From retailers to travel agents to media companies of all types, it’s been steadily remaking just about every industry out there.
But often the companies and industries ripe for creative destruction aren’t as obvious as video rental shops or horse-drawn carriages–and they use their social and political connections to hold out far longer than they have any right to. That’s definitely the case in two sectors right now: real estate and higher education.